# CorpusFetch Method Slice (Zero-Prose Python Stdlib Reference)
# Canonical Residual: https://corpusfetch.com/c/what-invariants-prevent-predictions-from-becoming-self-fulfilling-prophecies.md
# Remnant Warrant:    https://corpusfetch.com/c/what-invariants-prevent-predictions-from-becoming-self-fulfilling-prophecies.warrant.json
# Markdown SHA-256:   6f45c3d697481a9de143878e0bbae84502fb1402df02b0151cf5775af13c0f17
# Code AST SHA-256:   3e4d395559485928f289da88428b4445711254fc6c540d2b822b325fe2a2eeb6
# Verified Classes:   SelfFulfillmentVerdict, Prediction, PredictionPolicy, SelfFulfillmentManifest, SelfFulfillingProphecyGuard
# Defensive Guards:   0 fail-closed invariants (zero external deps)

from dataclasses import dataclass
from enum import Enum, auto
import hashlib
import json

class SelfFulfillmentVerdict(Enum):
    PRIVATE_PREDICTION = auto()
    OBSERVED_DECOUPLED = auto()
    SELF_FULFILLING_RISK = auto()
    SELF_DEFEATING_RISK = auto()

@dataclass(frozen=True)
class Prediction:
    prediction_id: str
    predicted_outcome: str
    observer_count: int
    observers_have_action_channel: bool
    observers_can_influence_outcome: bool
    disclosed_self_fulfillment_risk: bool

@dataclass(frozen=True)
class PredictionPolicy:
    require_disclosure_for_coupled: bool

@dataclass(frozen=True)
class SelfFulfillmentManifest:
    verdict: SelfFulfillmentVerdict
    directive: str
    manifest_digest: str

class SelfFulfillingProphecyGuard:
    @staticmethod
    def _hash(data: str) -> str:
        return hashlib.sha256(data.encode("utf-8")).hexdigest()

    @classmethod
    def evaluate_prediction(
        cls, prediction: Prediction, policy: PredictionPolicy
    ) -> SelfFulfillmentManifest:
        
        # Gate 1: Private prediction
        if prediction.observer_count == 0:
            digest = cls._hash(json.dumps({
                "prediction": prediction.prediction_id,
                "observers": "0"
            }, sort_keys=True))
            return SelfFulfillmentManifest(
                verdict=SelfFulfillmentVerdict.PRIVATE_PREDICTION,
                directive=f"PROCEED: Prediction {prediction.prediction_id} is private.",
                manifest_digest=digest
            )

        # Gate 2: Decoupled observers
        if not prediction.observers_have_action_channel or not prediction.observers_can_influence_outcome:
            digest = cls._hash(json.dumps({
                "prediction": prediction.prediction_id,
                "observers": str(prediction.observer_count),
                "decoupled": "TRUE"
            }, sort_keys=True))
            return SelfFulfillmentManifest(
                verdict=SelfFulfillmentVerdict.OBSERVED_DECOUPLED,
                directive=f"PROCEED: {prediction.observer_count} observers, no self-fulfillment channel.",
                manifest_digest=digest
            )

        # Gate 3: Disclosure requirement
        if policy.require_disclosure_for_coupled and not prediction.disclosed_self_fulfillment_risk:
            return SelfFulfillmentManifest(
                verdict=SelfFulfillmentVerdict.SELF_FULFILLING_RISK,
                directive=f"HALT: Prediction {prediction.prediction_id} has coupled observers without disclosure.",
                manifest_digest=cls._hash(f"NO_DISCLOSURE:{prediction.prediction_id}")
            )

        # Gate 4: Disclosed, proceed
        digest = cls._hash(json.dumps({
            "prediction": prediction.prediction_id,
            "observers": str(prediction.observer_count),
            "outcome": prediction.predicted_outcome,
            "disclosed": "TRUE"
        }, sort_keys=True))
        
        return SelfFulfillmentManifest(
            verdict=SelfFulfillmentVerdict.SELF_FULFILLING_RISK,
            directive=f"PROCEED_WITH_DISCLOSURE: Prediction {prediction.prediction_id} may self-fulfill, disclosed.",
            manifest_digest=digest
        )