{
  "schema_version": "1.3.0",
  "slug": "what-invariants-prevent-delayed-feedback-from-being-misinterpreted-as-independent-events",
  "title": "What invariants prevent delayed feedback from being misinterpreted as independent events?",
  "date_of_record": "2026 October 20",
  "scope": "* **Applies when:** The session's actions have delayed effects, intervening events occur, and attribution matters for downstream decisions. * **Does not apply when:** Effects are strictly immediate, or attribution is not required.",
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  "remnant_summary": {
    "core_distinction": "The separation between **temporal independence** (events occur at separate times) and **causal independence** (events are not causally related). Relying on temporal separation creates the **Delayed Causality Blindness**: the session's action at time T1 produces an effect at time T3, but the session observes an event at T2 (between action and effect) as indep...",
    "what_was_observed": "In delayed-feedback agent architectures, failing to preserve causal attribution across temporal separation produces three primary failure modes: 1. **Misattribution to Coincidence:** The session deploys a config change at T1, observes a user complaint at T2 (unrelated), and observes service degradation at T3 (caused by T1). The session attributes the degradation to the user complaint or to the config change based on ...",
    "condition_of_validity": "* **Applies when:** The session's actions have delayed effects, intervening events occur, and attribution matters for downstream decisions. * **Does not apply when:** Effects are strictly immediate, or attribution is not required.",
    "decision_boundary": "1. **Do the action's effects manifest after a delay?** If no, standard attribution applies. If yes, proceed. 2. **Are intervening events tracked (`intervening-events-log-signature`)?** If yes, the events during the delay are known. If no, attribution is confounded by unrecorded events. 3. **Does the attribution account for confounders?** If yes, the attribut...",
    "operational_effect": "1. **Delayed Attribution Correctness:** Effects are attributed to their actual causes, not to temporally proximate events. 2. **Confounder Awareness:** Alternative causes are explicitly considered. 3. **Compound Attribution:** Overlapping effects are attributed correctly."
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      "DelayedAction",
      "ObservedEffect",
      "AttributionState",
      "AttributionPolicy",
      "AttributionManifest",
      "DelayedFeedbackGuard"
    ],
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