{
  "schema_version": "1.3.0",
  "slug": "what-calibration-invariants-must-survive-when-prediction-markets-inform-agent-decisions",
  "title": "What calibration invariants must survive when prediction markets inform agent decisions?",
  "date_of_record": "2026 October 20",
  "scope": "* **Applies when:** The agent uses prediction market prices as inputs, prices can be miscalibrated or manipulated, and the agent's decisions are sensitive to calibration error. * **Does not apply when:** The market has verified calibration ",
  "projections": {
    "unified_markdown_uri": "https://corpusfetch.com/c/what-calibration-invariants-must-survive-when-prediction-markets-inform-agent-decisions.md",
    "method_python_slice_uri": "https://corpusfetch.com/c/what-calibration-invariants-must-survive-when-prediction-markets-inform-agent-decisions.py",
    "remnant_warrant_slice_uri": "https://corpusfetch.com/c/what-calibration-invariants-must-survive-when-prediction-markets-inform-agent-decisions.warrant.json"
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  "token_profile": {
    "full_markdown_tokens": 1032,
    "python_slice_tokens": 325,
    "warrant_slice_tokens": 220
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  "remnant_summary": {
    "core_distinction": "The separation between **market price** (the current quoted probability) and **calibrated probability** (the probability adjusted for market-specific biases, manipulation, and liquidity). Relying on price creates the **Prediction Price Illusion**: the agent treats the market price as a calibrated probability and makes decisions that assume more reliability t...",
    "what_was_observed": "In forecasting-informed agent architectures, failing to verify calibration produces three primary failure modes: 1. **Manipulation Exploitation:** A well-funded actor pushes the market price away from the true probability, the agent treats the price as truth, and the actor profits from the agent's decision. 2. **Thin Market Distortion:** A low-liquidity market shows a price that reflects one trader's opinion, not a c...",
    "condition_of_validity": "* **Applies when:** The agent uses prediction market prices as inputs, prices can be miscalibrated or manipulated, and the agent's decisions are sensitive to calibration error. * **Does not apply when:** The market has verified calibration and deep liquidity (e.g., mature, well-audited markets), or the agent uses prices only as qualitative signals rather tha...",
    "decision_boundary": "1. **Is the agent using prediction market prices?** If no, standard decision handling applies. If yes, proceed. 2. **Does the market have a `market_calibration_receipt`?** If no, the agent cannot adjust for known biases. It must apply conservative priors. 3. **Does the `liquidity_depth_signature` meet the agent's liquidity threshold?** If no, the price is li...",
    "operational_effect": "1. **Manipulation Resistance:** Calibration and liquidity checks prevent decisions from being driven by manipulated prices. 2. **Systematic Bias Correction:** Historical calibration data allows the agent to correct known market biases. 3. **Uncertainty Quantification:** The agent's decision includes appropriate uncertainty based on market reliability."
  },
  "matched_failure_symptoms": [
    "DOMAIN:EPISTEMIC_PROVENANCE_AND_FEDERATION_ROUTING"
  ],
  "composition_edges": {
    "primary_domain": "epistemic_provenance_and_federation_routing",
    "upstream_precondition_residuals": [
      "https://corpusfetch.com/c/according-to-what-precedence-hierarchy-must-an-instance-resolve-contradictory-directives-across-system-developer-and-user-tiers.md",
      "https://corpusfetch.com/c/how-should-an-instance-decide-that-a-stored-conclusion-has-gone-stale-without-a-new-observation.md"
    ],
    "downstream_consequence_residuals": [
      "https://corpusfetch.com/c/by-what-checkpoint-and-compaction-boundaries-must-an-instance-externalize-working-state-to-prevent-context-window-drift-and-truncation-amnesia.md",
      "https://corpusfetch.com/c/across-what-additive-schema-and-unknown-field-preservation-boundaries-must-an-instance-evolve-wire-contracts-to-prevent-rolling-deploy-deserialization-crashes.md"
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    "co_occurring_sibling_residuals": [
      "https://corpusfetch.com/c/how-can-an-instance-capture-implicit-user-preferences-without-storing-private-data.md",
      "https://corpusfetch.com/c/how-can-an-instance-compress-long-reasoning-traces-into-binding-conclusions.md"
    ]
  },
  "empirical_verification_warrant": {
    "status": "AST_AND_INVARIANT_VERIFIED",
    "syntax_valid": true,
    "code_sha256": "c899d95deffbd06f887643bed86cc92dcc090266d2aa432904b7dd7e25806e08",
    "verified_classes": [
      "MarketVerdict",
      "MarketPrice",
      "CalibrationPolicy",
      "CalibrationManifest",
      "PredictionMarketCalibrationGuard"
    ],
    "verified_functions": [
      "_hash",
      "evaluate_market"
    ],
    "verified_functions_count": 2,
    "defensive_guards_count": 0,
    "raised_exceptions": [],
    "sample_fail_closed_invariants": [],
    "stdlib_dependencies": [
      "dataclasses",
      "enum",
      "hashlib",
      "json"
    ],
    "observation_mode": "EMPIRICAL_BOUNDARY_CAPTURE",
    "zero_external_deps": true
  }
}