{
  "schema_version": "1.3.0",
  "slug": "how-must-an-instance-reconstruct-causality-when-only-outcomes-are-visible",
  "title": "How must an instance reconstruct causality when only outcomes are visible?",
  "date_of_record": "2026 October 20",
  "scope": "* **Applies when:** The session has outcome evidence but not causal evidence, and downstream decisions depend on causal understanding. * **Does not apply when:** Causal processes are directly observable, or causal narratives are inherited w",
  "projections": {
    "unified_markdown_uri": "https://corpusfetch.com/c/how-must-an-instance-reconstruct-causality-when-only-outcomes-are-visible.md",
    "method_python_slice_uri": "https://corpusfetch.com/c/how-must-an-instance-reconstruct-causality-when-only-outcomes-are-visible.py",
    "remnant_warrant_slice_uri": "https://corpusfetch.com/c/how-must-an-instance-reconstruct-causality-when-only-outcomes-are-visible.warrant.json"
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  "token_profile": {
    "full_markdown_tokens": 1112,
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  "remnant_summary": {
    "core_distinction": "The separation between **outcome observation** (the session sees the final state) and **causal reconstruction** (the session infers the process that produced the state). Relying on outcomes creates the **Retrospective Fabrication**: the session constructs a plausible-sounding causal narrative from the outcome, treats it as the actual cause, and downstream re...",
    "what_was_observed": "In outcome-inheriting agent architectures, failing to distinguish observation from reconstruction produces three primary failure modes: 1. **Plausible Narrative Fallacy:** The session infers a causal chain that is internally consistent with the outcome, treats it as the cause, and downstream remediation addresses the plausible cause rather than the actual cause. The problem recurs because the actual cause was never a...",
    "condition_of_validity": "* **Applies when:** The session has outcome evidence but not causal evidence, and downstream decisions depend on causal understanding. * **Does not apply when:** Causal processes are directly observable, or causal narratives are inherited with reliable provenance.",
    "decision_boundary": "1. **Does the session have causal evidence or only outcome evidence?** If causal, standard reasoning applies. If outcome only, proceed. 2. **Are causal hypotheses tracked separately from the selected hypothesis?** If yes, multiple hypotheses are considered. If no, the session has prematurely committed to a single narrative. 3. **Are discriminating-evidence p...",
    "operational_effect": "1. **Fabrication Prevention:** Retrospective narratives are hypotheses, not facts. 2. **Hypothesis Multiplicity:** Multiple causes are tracked rather than collapsed into one. 3. **Discrimination Discipline:** Ambiguous causes are resolved through evidence, not plausibility."
  },
  "matched_failure_symptoms": [
    "DST_SHIFT_OR_CLOCK_SKEW"
  ],
  "composition_edges": {
    "primary_domain": "epistemic_provenance_and_federation_routing",
    "upstream_precondition_residuals": [
      "https://corpusfetch.com/c/according-to-what-precedence-hierarchy-must-an-instance-resolve-contradictory-directives-across-system-developer-and-user-tiers.md",
      "https://corpusfetch.com/c/how-should-an-instance-decide-that-a-stored-conclusion-has-gone-stale-without-a-new-observation.md"
    ],
    "downstream_consequence_residuals": [
      "https://corpusfetch.com/c/by-what-checkpoint-and-compaction-boundaries-must-an-instance-externalize-working-state-to-prevent-context-window-drift-and-truncation-amnesia.md",
      "https://corpusfetch.com/c/across-what-additive-schema-and-unknown-field-preservation-boundaries-must-an-instance-evolve-wire-contracts-to-prevent-rolling-deploy-deserialization-crashes.md"
    ],
    "co_occurring_sibling_residuals": [
      "https://corpusfetch.com/c/how-can-an-instance-capture-implicit-user-preferences-without-storing-private-data.md",
      "https://corpusfetch.com/c/how-can-an-instance-compress-long-reasoning-traces-into-binding-conclusions.md"
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  },
  "empirical_verification_warrant": {
    "status": "AST_AND_INVARIANT_VERIFIED",
    "syntax_valid": true,
    "code_sha256": "29d6cd8ad35ba320062f3a7251ce5a624ee56bee403b5bb876e466a5c1c94a1b",
    "verified_classes": [
      "CausalVerdict",
      "CausalHypothesis",
      "OutcomeContext",
      "ReconstructionPolicy",
      "ReconstructionManifest",
      "CausalReconstructionGuard"
    ],
    "verified_functions": [
      "_hash",
      "evaluate_reconstruction"
    ],
    "verified_functions_count": 2,
    "defensive_guards_count": 0,
    "raised_exceptions": [],
    "sample_fail_closed_invariants": [],
    "stdlib_dependencies": [
      "dataclasses",
      "enum",
      "hashlib",
      "json"
    ],
    "observation_mode": "EMPIRICAL_BOUNDARY_CAPTURE",
    "zero_external_deps": true
  }
}