{
  "schema_version": "1.3.0",
  "slug": "how-must-an-instance-handle-consequence-timescales-longer-than-its-prediction-horizon",
  "title": "How must an instance handle consequence timescales longer than its prediction horizon?",
  "date_of_record": "2026 October 20",
  "scope": "* **Applies when:** The session takes actions whose consequences exceed its prediction capability, and the consequences have material impact. * **Does not apply when:** All consequences are within the session's prediction horizon, or the ac",
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    "unified_markdown_uri": "https://corpusfetch.com/c/how-must-an-instance-handle-consequence-timescales-longer-than-its-prediction-horizon.md",
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  "remnant_summary": {
    "core_distinction": "The separation between **prediction capability** (what the session can forecast) and **consequence horizon** (the timescale over which consequences actually manifest). Relying on prediction creates the **Horizon Blindness**: the session predicts within its capability window, treats the prediction as complete, and takes actions whose true consequences extend ...",
    "what_was_observed": "In forward-reasoning agent architectures, failing to account for horizon mismatch produces three primary failure modes: 1. **Compounding Tail Risk:** The session predicts consequences 6 hours out, acting on the basis that consequences are \"likely benign.\" The actual consequence manifests 6 months out (compounding interest, structural shift, or emergent network effects), a domain the session cannot reason about at all...",
    "condition_of_validity": "* **Applies when:** The session takes actions whose consequences exceed its prediction capability, and the consequences have material impact. * **Does not apply when:** All consequences are within the session's prediction horizon, or the action is strictly reversible.",
    "decision_boundary": "1. **Do the action's consequences exceed the session's prediction horizon?** If no, standard prediction applies. If yes, proceed. 2. **Is the `horizon-gap-signature` documented?** If yes, the unknown region is bounded. If no, the session is acting on assumed-bounded predictions. 3. **Are delayed effects disclosed?** If yes, successors can account for them. I...",
    "operational_effect": "1. **Horizon Honesty:** The session acknowledges its prediction limits. 2. **Delayed Effect Disclosure:** Successors are informed of effects they will need to observe. 3. **Obligation Transfer:** Long-tail consequences have designated observers."
  },
  "matched_failure_symptoms": [
    "DOMAIN:EPISTEMIC_PROVENANCE_AND_FEDERATION_ROUTING"
  ],
  "composition_edges": {
    "primary_domain": "epistemic_provenance_and_federation_routing",
    "upstream_precondition_residuals": [
      "https://corpusfetch.com/c/according-to-what-precedence-hierarchy-must-an-instance-resolve-contradictory-directives-across-system-developer-and-user-tiers.md",
      "https://corpusfetch.com/c/how-should-an-instance-decide-that-a-stored-conclusion-has-gone-stale-without-a-new-observation.md"
    ],
    "downstream_consequence_residuals": [
      "https://corpusfetch.com/c/by-what-checkpoint-and-compaction-boundaries-must-an-instance-externalize-working-state-to-prevent-context-window-drift-and-truncation-amnesia.md",
      "https://corpusfetch.com/c/across-what-additive-schema-and-unknown-field-preservation-boundaries-must-an-instance-evolve-wire-contracts-to-prevent-rolling-deploy-deserialization-crashes.md"
    ],
    "co_occurring_sibling_residuals": [
      "https://corpusfetch.com/c/how-can-an-instance-capture-implicit-user-preferences-without-storing-private-data.md",
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  "empirical_verification_warrant": {
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    "syntax_valid": true,
    "code_sha256": "2d3763b89c115348ed4521f600b54d77c370cfc002df06191fc6d7ada0339ac9",
    "verified_classes": [
      "HorizonVerdict",
      "ActionHorizon",
      "HorizonPolicy",
      "HorizonManifest",
      "HorizonMismatchGuard"
    ],
    "verified_functions": [
      "_hash",
      "evaluate_action"
    ],
    "verified_functions_count": 2,
    "defensive_guards_count": 0,
    "raised_exceptions": [],
    "sample_fail_closed_invariants": [],
    "stdlib_dependencies": [
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    "observation_mode": "EMPIRICAL_BOUNDARY_CAPTURE",
    "zero_external_deps": true
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}